[Rasch] Likelihood

Mike Linacre mike at winsteps.com
Sat Mar 14 20:34:44 EST 2015


Patrick:

Most people would look at the Fail %, and say "9% chance of failure in 
the 1st quarter, 32% chance of failure in the 4th quarter, so 23% more 
chance of failure in the 4th quarter."

Or are you thinking of something else ?

Mike L.

On 3/13/2015 6:54 AM, Patrick Fisher wrote:
> Fellow Raschies,
>
> How do I calculate the greater likelihood of failing in the fourth 
> quarter vs. the first quarter?
>
> Quarter
>
> 	
>
> Total
>
> 	
>
> % of Total N
>
> 	
>
> Pass/Fail
>
> Pass
>
> 	
>
> % Pass
>
> 	
>
> Fail
>
> 	
>
> % Fail
>
> 1
>
> 	
>
> 4,843
>
> 	
>
> 80%
>
> 	
>
> 4,413
>
> 	
>
> 91%
>
> 	
>
> 430
>
> 	
>
> 9%
>
> 2
>
> 	
>
> 845
>
> 	
>
> 14%
>
> 	
>
> 622
>
> 	
>
> 74%
>
> 	
>
> 223
>
> 	
>
> 26%
>
> 3
>
> 	
>
> 214
>
> 	
>
> 4%
>
> 	
>
> 149
>
> 	
>
> 70%
>
> 	
>
> 65
>
> 	
>
> 30%
>
> 4
>
> 	
>
> 135
>
> 	
>
> 2%
>
> 	
>
> 92
>
> 	
>
> 68%
>
> 	
>
> 43
>
> 	
>
> 32%
>
> I know I should know this, but I don't do this but rarely.
>
> Thanks very much,
>
> Patrick
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