[Rasch] Likelihood

Patrick Fisher pfisher at sportsmeasures.com
Sun Mar 15 00:30:34 EST 2015


I am looking the proportion of people who took the exam in the first 
quarter vs. the fourth quarter and given the greater propensity to fail 
in the fourth quarter, it is X times more likely that you will fail the 
exam if you wait until the fourth quarter to take the exam.

Patrick




On 3/14/2015 4:34 AM, Mike Linacre wrote:
> Patrick:
>
> Most people would look at the Fail %, and say "9% chance of failure in 
> the 1st quarter, 32% chance of failure in the 4th quarter, so 23% more 
> chance of failure in the 4th quarter."
>
> Or are you thinking of something else ?
>
> Mike L.
>
> On 3/13/2015 6:54 AM, Patrick Fisher wrote:
>> Fellow Raschies,
>>
>> How do I calculate the greater likelihood of failing in the fourth 
>> quarter vs. the first quarter?
>>
>> Quarter
>>
>> 	
>>
>> Total
>>
>> 	
>>
>> % of Total N
>>
>> 	
>>
>> Pass/Fail
>>
>> Pass
>>
>> 	
>>
>> % Pass
>>
>> 	
>>
>> Fail
>>
>> 	
>>
>> % Fail
>>
>> 1
>>
>> 	
>>
>> 4,843
>>
>> 	
>>
>> 80%
>>
>> 	
>>
>> 4,413
>>
>> 	
>>
>> 91%
>>
>> 	
>>
>> 430
>>
>> 	
>>
>> 9%
>>
>> 2
>>
>> 	
>>
>> 845
>>
>> 	
>>
>> 14%
>>
>> 	
>>
>> 622
>>
>> 	
>>
>> 74%
>>
>> 	
>>
>> 223
>>
>> 	
>>
>> 26%
>>
>> 3
>>
>> 	
>>
>> 214
>>
>> 	
>>
>> 4%
>>
>> 	
>>
>> 149
>>
>> 	
>>
>> 70%
>>
>> 	
>>
>> 65
>>
>> 	
>>
>> 30%
>>
>> 4
>>
>> 	
>>
>> 135
>>
>> 	
>>
>> 2%
>>
>> 	
>>
>> 92
>>
>> 	
>>
>> 68%
>>
>> 	
>>
>> 43
>>
>> 	
>>
>> 32%
>>
>> I know I should know this, but I don't do this but rarely.
>>
>> Thanks very much,
>>
>> Patrick
>
>
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